On April 14, Iran launched an unprecedented attack against Israel with more than 300 drones and missiles including ballistic missiles.
One week later, Israel launched a strike against an Iranian air base in Isafhan in what appeared to be a limited, targeted retaliation to the drone and missile attack by Tehran.
According to an Israeli official source, the strike had been intended to signal to Iran that Israel has the ability to reach Iran with its weapons.
‘’I see it as the bigger and longer campaign targeting military sites in Iran and also the start of a psychological warfare operation by Israel to reach the paranoia of the ayatollahs and the IRGC, making them guess when the next strike is going to come,’’ Iran expert Kasra Aarabi, told European Jewish Press.
A director of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) in London, Aarabi specializes in Iranian military and security affairs and Shi’a extremism. He is also a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington
‘’It is only the first step. From the Iranian calculus, they will be trying to flip the narrative for propaganda purposes. They know that this is just the beginning. Their line will be ‘We are showing restraint, we are a ‘rational’ actor’’ despite the fact that they launched an unprecedented, illogical, irationnal, reckless strike last week; They will try to have media and policymakers in Europe pick that narrative. You also start seeing their lobby network pushing this narrative,’’ he added in a phone conversation..
According Kasra Aarabi, a native Persian speaker, another interest of the Iranian regime is to look at the US support and Biden’s support for Israel’s retaliation. ‘’If they see weakness from the US side expect escalation to take place in the next ten months not just in relation to Israel but across the board. The Biden clearly demonstrated that he has no appetite to impose direct consequences on Iran’s regime and actually the next ten months before a potential new administration takes office in the US is the best opportunity for Iran to escalate all fronts, not least by the way of weaponization of the nuclear program. If Trump is elected in November, there will be a totally different and robust US Iran policy. The Islamic Republic fears a combination of Trump and Netanyahu.’’
Aarabi noted that there is a lot of discussion internally in Iran among senior IRGC command that now is the best time to weaponize the nuclear program.
‘’But all the factors that brought Iranians into the streets – mass corruption, killing of people, economic hardship, have only got worse in the past four months. So actually protests in Iran are on the agenda in the near future. The scenario Ayatollah Khamenei wants to avoid at all cost is simultaneous Israeli strikes against the IRGC and anti-regime protests taking place at the same time in the streets. Because the IRGC is the main security guarantor of the regime internally and externally. This This could lead to a total regime collapse. Khamenei wants to avoid this scenario at all cost. So Israel has started a psychological warfare which I think is right. They will also be testing the Iranian people’s response to the strike. The Iranian people by an large have been supportive of Israeli targeted actions, the killing of Mohalmmed Reza Zahedi, a senior IRGC commander in Damascus three weeks, was celebrated by the Iranian people because he was a human rights violator, the head of one of the main repression headquarter. The Iranians are very hostile to the Islamic Republic. The only way to guarantee peace and stability in the region is the regime change.’’
Aarabi added: ‘’ The Iranian people are calling for a regime change, they were on the streets in 2022 . Unfortunately the US and the Europeans decided to deal and negotiate with Khameinei. This was a key missed opportunity but all indicatest hat there will be anti-regime protests in the future. In the long term, as part of this Israeli response tot he Islamic Republic the US should work to support the democratic aspirations of the Iranian people.’’
‘’Right now, because of the conflict with Israel and the wider conflict you would expect the Iranian regime to alleviate the pressure on the people, to rally them around the flag. Instead they did the opposite. The new extremely ideological young IRGC leaders believe that this is the best opoprtunity to push Khamenei’s domestic islamization program. So they are double down on the islamic morality policy that is increasing the anti-regime sentiment even, making it worse.’’
For Aarabi, the whole purpose of the Iranian regime is to cause division within the EU, between the US and Europe and between the US and Israel.
‘’Putting IRGC on the EU terror list is an important step to protect the national security, to protect our communities, particularly the Iranian diaspora and the Jewish community because there is a genuine terror threat and because they are not only targeting and conducting terror plots but theyr are also nurturing homegrown Shia islamist radicalization, using the Isis and Al Qaeda methods. However, because IRGC is not proscribed (as a terror group), these activities are not outlawed. The current sanctions regime doesn’t prohibit ther IRGC’s ability to disseminate jihadist propaganda. Proscribing IRGC would help on that front but it is not going to change IRGC’s calculus. The only thing that will change the IRGC’s calculus at this point is targeted strikes against IRGC’s mlitary intelligence assets in the region and inside of Iran. Unfortunately I don’t think Europeans still properly acknowlege the Islamic Republic of Iran as an hostile actor and enemy.’’