As questions remain over the Lebanese Armed Forces’ ability to stop Hezbollah’s entrenchment, the IDF is completing the remainder of its withdrawal.

By Yaakov Lappin, JNS

The Israel Defense Forces is in the final stages of withdrawing from Southern Lebanon as part of the ceasefire agreement that came into effect on Nov. 27.

The withdrawal, which was scheduled to be complete by Tuesday, follows months of intense Israeli military operations aimed at neutralizing Hezbollah’s ability to launch deadly attacks against Israel, and a ceasefire trial period that has exposed the limitations of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to act as a counterweight to the Hezbollah terrorist militia.

As a result, the IDF announced on Monday that it will maintain a presence in five key strategic locations in Southern Lebanon. These positions, close to the Israeli border, are deemed essential for ensuring the security of northern Israeli communities until the LAF is fully able to assume control over Southern Lebanon under a U.S.-monitored mechanism.

According to an Israeli security official, the five locations in which IDF troops will be temporarily deployed are the Hasullam mountain range in Southern Lebanon, overlooking Shlomi in northern Israel; the Hashaked mountain range in Southern Lebanon, overlooking Avivim and Malkiya in northern Israel; the Hatzivoni mountain range in Southern Lebanon, overlooking Margaliot in northern Israel; Jabal Blat mountain, overlooking Zarit, Nurit and Shtula; and Hamamis hill, overlooking Har Dov, Metula and surrounding communities.

Following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas onslaught on southern Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon initiated its own offensive against Israel’s northern communities and military bases on Oct. 8.

Throughout the war, Hezbollah fired thousands of rockets, missiles, and drones at Israeli territory, leading to the evacuation of approximately 60,000 Israelis from northern border communities.

Israel’s response entered into a high-intensity phase beginning with the beeper attacks on Sept. 17, 2024, and included massive Israeli Air Force strikes targeting Hezbollah’s command structure, the destruction of its key military infrastructure and some 80 percent of its rocket arsenal, and a ground maneuver pushing Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces away from the border.

The IDF ground offensive exposed a massive invasion infrastructure built by Hezbollah and its Radwan Force, which aimed at conducting an Oct. 7-style attack on northern Israel, consisting of thousands of terrorists armed with anti-tank missiles and assault rifles, moving on vehicles and motorcycles.

The scale of the planned attack by Hezbollah’s death squads could have been larger than the Oct. 7 Hamas onslaught had it been launched.

On Monday, the IDF announced that its ground units recently dismantled an underground terrorist infrastructure in Southern Lebanon measuring dozens of meters, and which contained living quarters and combat equipment. Many such facilities have been found in Shi’ite villages bordering Israel, as well as tens of thousands of anti-tank missiles earmarked for use in the intended Hezbollah invasion plan.

Since the end of the 2006 Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah has systematically built military strongholds throughout Southern Lebanon in violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701.

The U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has been powerless to stop these activities, and failed to even document them. These fortifications were positioned alarmingly close to Israeli communities and, in some cases, were within running distance from the border.

This was all part of Hezbollah’s “Conquer the Galilee” plan, aimed at conducting large-scale mass killings and kidnapping incursions into Israeli territory, the IDF’s spokesman to the international media, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, stated on Monday.

In response to the ongoing threat, Israel conducted a significant military campaign in southern Lebanon to dismantle these positions. Following these operations, conditions were set for the ceasefire agreement, which led to the IDF’s gradual withdrawal under the supervision of the American-led mechanism.

Over the past several weeks, the IDF has been implementing its withdrawal in stages, transferring control of Southern Lebanon to the LAF. The withdrawal is nearly complete, with most forces having already exited Lebanon by Monday.

According to Shoshani, “Most of the forces that needed to go out, are out already. Most, if not all of the areas we had to hand over have been handed over.”

The final phase of the withdrawal is expected to conclude by the end of Tuesday.

However, the IDF has also made it clear that it will temporarily maintain its presence in a limited deployment in the five above-mentioned strategic locations along the border.

These locations have been selected based on their security significance and proximity to Israeli communities, said Shoshani, providing vantage points that allow Israeli forces to monitor and prevent Hezbollah attacks or new attempts to entrench near the Israeli border.

As such, the five locations represent critical defensive outposts to secure northern Israeli communities, some of which suffer from topographical inferiority due to being surrounded by higher Lebanese hills and mountains to their north.

The IDF has emphasized that its presence in these five locations is temporary, but did not give a time frame for further withdrawal.

“This is a temporary measure until the Lebanese Armed Forces are able to fully implement the understandings,” said Shoshani.

However, serious questions remain regarding the LAF’s ability to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its infrastructure in Southern Lebanon.

It seems clear that Hezbollah’s willingness to adhere to the agreement and refrain from rebuilding its military infrastructure near the border is nonexistent, and that it is primarily up to the IDF to continue to use force to prevent Hezbollah’s re-entrenchment.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem warned Israel on Sunday that if it does not withdraw its forces from Lebanon by Feb. 18, “we will know how to deal with it.”

However, Hezbollah appears to prefer to take advantage of the current truce to focus on licking its wounds and to regroup.

In recent weeks, Hezbollah has already violated the agreement repeatedly by moving weapons and terror operatives into off-limit zones. The IDF has responded swiftly to these violations, mainly from the air.

The LAF, for its part, has historically failed to assert any control over Hezbollah-dominated Shi’ite regions. There are also concerns that Hezbollah’s influence within the LAF, through the Lebanese army’s Shi’ite officers and soldiers, could make the LAF irrelevant as a counterweight to Hezbollah, or worse—an active collaborator with the Iranian-backed terror organization.

The effectiveness of the U.S.-led monitoring mechanism in dealing with these challenges remains to be seen.

Ultimately, Israel reserves its right to militarily intervene in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from crawling back to the Israeli border, if it sees that the monitoring mechanism and the LAF are unable to uphold the truce understandings.