With the Gaza war over, Iran is tallying two turbulent years that pulled it into a wider circle of fighting and fire, contrary to the restraint Tehran had sought to maintain before the war.

In the wake of the shock delivered by Israel in the June Israel-Iran war, known as “Operation Rising Lion” in Israel, and the heavy blow to its proxy network, it appears Iran is taking steps to rebuild its deterrence and is signaling an intent to renew its “ring of fire” around Israel.

That decision comes amid rising external pressure, including the activation of the U.N. Security Council snapback sanctions mechanism, and a sense of trauma in Iran after having been surprised by Israel.

The first worrying sign

Tehran appears focused on increasing the range of its ballistic missiles to intercontinental distances, meaning 5,500 kilometers (3,400 miles) and beyond. Tehran politician Mohsen Zanganeh told Iranian television recently that the unidentified lights seen in Iran’s skies two days earlier, which stirred public curiosity, were in fact a successful test of an intercontinental missile. It may have been the Khorramshahr-5 ballistic missile, which has a reported range of 12,000 kilometers (7,500 miles) and which according to Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nazirzadeh has not yet entered operational service.

However, Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, confirmed the report. In an interview with Iranian media, he said Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had removed a previous limit that kept Iran’s missile range under 2,200 kilometers (1,400 miles), and that Iran was now developing an extended-range missile program, because it must strengthen what he called its most important military power, namely its missile program.

The second worrying sign

Alongside talk of intercontinental missiles, pressure on Khamenei is growing within the regime to approve the production of nuclear weapons. Last week, Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Khamenei and a long-time manager of Iran’s nuclear program, urged the regime to develop nuclear weapons, saying it would have been better if Iran had developed such weapons in the 1990s.

Earlier, on Sept. 22, it was reported that 70 members of parliament sent a letter to the Supreme National Security Council, the high body that makes the regime’s strategic decisions, demanding permission to develop nuclear weapons. The MPs emphasized their request is to authorize possession and development of such weapons for deterrence purposes, but not to use them.

At the same time, nuclear scientist Mahmoud Reza Aghamiri, president of Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, which is under U.S. and European sanctions because of links to the nuclear program, said last week that if one day Iran is required to build an atomic bomb, it could do so well. He added that Iran has the capability and resources to develop nuclear weapons, but that it does not intend to do so.

The third worrying sign

Alongside the two previous moves, Tehran is signaling a determination to rebuild its proxy network despite the major changes the war has caused in the Middle East.

As revealed by the Mossad’s Persian-language account on X, Abdollah Saberi has been appointed to replace Saeed Izadi, who was eliminated in “Operation Rising Lion,” as head of the Palestine branch of the Quds Force. In that role, Saberi will be responsible for rebuilding Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Syria.

Saberi is expected to rely on Unit 840 of the Quds Force, the unit responsible for special operations, which in recent years attempted to smuggle advanced, game-changing weaponry to terrorist actors in Judea and Samaria. The Israel Defense Forces and Israel Security Agency foiled these attempts.

Other Quds Force branches are Unit 340, the technical assistance unit that provides know-how and technological equipment for Iran’s regional networks, and Unit 190, which is responsible for smuggling arms to the network and whose commander, Henam al-Hiryari, was also eliminated.

Tehran sees cultivation of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” as essential to its national security. That idea was echoed recently by Parliament Speaker and member of the Supreme National Security Council Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, who explicitly expressed the Iranian aspiration to renew the ring of fire around Israel.

He argued that if Iran does not fight Israel on the Golan front, Israel will fight Iran on its own borders. He also stressed that Iran’s route for transferring support to Hezbollah remains open, even if it has become more difficult in light of regional changes, a sign of Iranian motivation to rebuild Hezbollah and reinvigorate the organization.

Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Ali-Reza Tangsiri recently boasted of Tehran’s ability to export missiles, unmanned aerial systems and warships.

The trauma is still here

This trend is also apparent in the Islamic Republic’s response to a message Russian President Vladimir Putin recently conveyed from Prime Minister Netanyahu that Israel does not intend to renew the war against Iran. Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran’s forces remain on alert for the possibility of a renewed war, because it is quite likely that this is an Israeli deception.

At the same time, in an effort to curb a sharp fall in the national currency and to tamp down unrest that could spark protests, the regime is sending calming messages to its public.

Security officials told the media that the enemy will not dare to renew the war and that the likelihood of such a resumption is small.

Where is Tehran headed? 

And what does the Supreme Leader say? In a speech last month, Khamenei argued at length that resuming negotiations with the United States would be a move whose harm outweighs its benefit, because it would amount to capitulation to President Donald Trump and would bring further U.S. demands on missiles and other areas.

Nevertheless, the moderate and reformist camps are questioning his policy, as evidenced by sharp criticism of the decision to reject an invitation for Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to attend a summit hosted by Trump in Sharm el-Sheikh.

In their view, his participation could have opened a door to renewing talks with the United States and easing tensions. However, given Khamenei’s deep suspicion of and lack of trust in Trump, it appears that for now the Iranian leader will continue to set strict conditions for resuming talks and will push a policy designed to weather the Trump era.

In light of these developments, Israel should prepare for the possibility that Iran will return to Syria, especially in a scenario where Khamenei is persuaded by hard-line officials calling for the development of nuclear weapons.

Iran’s attempt to upgrade its missile program and restore the “Axis of Resistance” demonstrates once again that Tehran will remain at the center of Israel’s strategic calculations.

Domestic support for developing nuclear weapons, Iran’s growing international isolation, the missiles Tehran is trying to develop against the West and, for now, the end of the Gaza war all give Israel an opportunity to strengthen its strategic partnership with the United States.

Accordingly, Israel should work to expand that partnership to leading European states, a move that would build broad cooperation against Iran, deepen pressure on Tehran and legitimize kinetic and economic action against it.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof is an expert on Iran and Shi’ite political Islam at the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy. 

 Originally published by Israel Hayom.