More and more positions are being taken, sometimes far apart, and the possibility of an alternative majority vote on sanctions against Israel  poses a real threat to the balance of government.

By Yossi Lempkowicz

Since the formation of a government in Belgium at the beginning of this year, the issue of Gaza has been a divisive issue between the right and center-left members of the coaliton.

But the smell of a possible crisis has grown in recent days.

“We argue about this every day. If we don’t find a solution soon, the government will be in crisis,’’ said last week Sammy Mahdi, president of the Christian-Democrat CD&v party who threatened to block other dossiers until sanctions were taken against Israel on Gaza.

On Thursday, another member of the coalition, the president of the Flemish Socialist Vooruit party, Conner Rousseau, said in an interview that the situation in Gaza was worth a government crisis. If no action is taken, he is threatening to approve sanctions via an alternative majority, meaning together with opposition parties.

Driven by public outrage at the humanitarian situation in Gaza, Vooruit and CD&V are seeking to put pressure on their coalition partners, the Flemish nationalist N-VA,  the Liberal MR and the centrist Les Engagés. The N-VA is opening the door to sanctions but only at European level. On Tuesday, however,  the 27 European Union member states failed to find a qualified majority to adopt a proposal from the European Commission to partially suspend Israel’s participation in the Horizon Europe research and innovation program. German and Italy, among others, blocked the move initiated by Spain and Ireland.  .

The French-speaking Liberals are opposed to sanctions. According to the party’s leader,  Georges-Louis Bouchez, they would have no effect. ““I am not unmoved by the pictures from Gaza but neither Belgium nor Europe will put an end to this conflict. Israel only listens to the United States”, he told VTM television. “We must act rationally, not emotionally,’’ he added.

For the time being, Prime Minister Bart De Wever is keeping quiet so as not to add fuel to the fire and to enjoy his holidays. But according to politicval observers, when he returns, he will have to calm things down and obtain a common position within the government. Without this, the budget negotiations, already extremely heavy and scheduled for September, will become even more complicated.

While the list of countries in Europe eager to recognise a Palestinian state grows, Valerie Van Peel, leader of  De Wever’s N-VA, said minds are not yet ready for such a  recognition  despite growing calls from the Flemish socialists and Christian democrats and the Francophone centrists.  “Talks need to start on the recognition of two states, Palestine, but also Israel by Arab nations.  Sorting the humanitarian crisis in Gaza via sanctions and getting aid goods to the regions is the priority” she declared.

MR President Bouchez ridiculed his Flemish socialist counterpart Rousseau suggesting the latter was trying’’ to play UN secretary general. That’s his right. I don’t think that’s a very serious attitude.’’.  The MR opposes sanctions against Israel and is eager to focus on domestic politics.

Bouchez maintain that immediate and unconditional recognition of a Palestinian state Palestine is not desirable. ‘’Before recognition can take place, Hamas must be withdrawn, there must be a Palestinian authority capable of administering the territory, there must be mutual security guarantees for Palestine and Israel, mutual recognition guarantees for the two states and recognition of Israel by all the Arab states,’’ he argues.

‘’Without these preconditions, recognition of Palestine will be at best symbolic, at wrst a reward for the pogrom of 7 October,’’ he adds.

“”Belgium’s influence on the conflict between Israel and Hamas is close to nil. We can and must work on humanitarian issues. We must be peacemakers by bringing the various parties to the table. We must be a driving force at European level”, he says.

On the side of the centrist Les Engagés party,  Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot, who has been very critical of Israel since day one, has indicated that he would make a proposal to the government on the recogniton in September, before the United Nations General Assembly, following in the footsteps of French President Emmanuel Macron.

A meeting of the Belgian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee is scheduled for August 14. The government’s position is unlikely to change between now and then.

But Bouchez has warned that if the Flemish Socialists will vote with the opposition on Gaza, it will be “the end of the government.’’