Joseph Aoun now faces the daunting task of steering Lebanon toward a brighter future. However, his tenure is likely to encounter persistent resistance from his opponents, particularly Hezbollah and its allies.

By Yoni Ben Menachem, Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs via JNS

Lebanese commentators have highlighted what they say is the severe blow Hezbollah suffered to its prestige after failing to secure the country’s presidency for its preferred candidate, Suleiman Frangieh.

Despite delaying the election for 26 months, Hezbollah was ultimately unsuccessful. Frangieh withdrew his candidacy and shifted his support to General Joseph Aoun, a figure backed by the United States, France, Saudi Arabia and several other Arab nations.

This loss for Hezbollah also dealt a significant setback to Iran and the Shi’ite “Amal” movement, which had supported Frangieh.

Israel’s recent military victory played a pivotal role in ending Lebanon’s two-year political vacuum, paving the way for Aoun’s election.

According to Lebanese sources, senior envoys from Gulf countries are expected to visit Beirut soon to meet with the new president.

Additionally, Aoun is planning an official visit to Saudi Arabia following an invitation from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who personally congratulated him on his election.

Immediate challenges for President Aoun

Commentators in Lebanon point to two urgent priorities for President Aoun:

1. Stabilizing the ceasefire in Southern Lebanon: Aoun must ensure the Lebanese army’s deployment in the south to stabilize the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. While Hassan Odeh serves as the army’s interim commander, a permanent chief of staff is expected to be appointed soon. Aoun’s efforts will also focus on facilitating the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory as outlined in the ceasefire agreement.
2. Forming a new government: Aoun will begin political consultations this week to establish a new government, replacing the interim administration led by Najib Mikati.

Lebanon now faces a rare opportunity to embark on economic reconstruction, with U.N. Resolution 1701 providing a framework for stabilizing the ceasefire and broader recovery efforts.

Questions of authority and challenges ahead

In his victory speech, Aoun pledged to refute skeptics’ doubts regarding his ability to dismantle Hezbollah’s military capabilities, as many in Lebanon’s opposition demand.

A key question is whether Aoun can prevent the smuggling of weapons from Syria to Lebanon and the transfer of weapons and funds from Iran to Hezbollah, particularly through Beirut’s international airport, a critical route for such supplies.

Officials in Jerusalem have expressed concerns that Aoun’s election may heighten international pressure on Israel to withdraw fully from southern Lebanon.

Any delay in this withdrawal could undermine Aoun’s position domestically, further complicating an already fragile political environment.

According to a report in the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar on Jan. 11, U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein has assured Lebanese officials that Washington has guaranteed Israel’s full withdrawal before the 60-day ceasefire concludes.

Where are things heading?

Lebanese political commentators suggest that Aoun’s election is primarily the result of significant international pressure on Lebanon’s political system.

Despite widespread opposition among parliamentary factions, Aoun managed to secure a majority for his presidency.

He now faces the daunting task of steering Lebanon toward a brighter future by fostering new regional and international partnerships. However, his tenure is likely to encounter persistent resistance from his opponents, particularly Hezbollah and its allies.

Reports indicate that Hezbollah and the Shi’ite “Amal” movement have received assurances that their representatives will occupy key positions in the new government, including the roles of prime minister and finance minister. The incoming government is also expected to prioritize rebuilding Lebanon from the devastating effects of the recent conflict.

A glimmer of hope

Public expectations for Aoun are high, with many Lebanese citizens expressing optimism about his potential to guide the country toward stability and reform. However, the political reality remains precarious, and the path forward is fraught with obstacles.

As Aoun works to stabilize Lebanon, the interplay of domestic pressures, international expectations and opposition from entrenched political factions will determine whether his presidency ushers in a new era for the country—or becomes another chapter in its turbulent history.

Originally published by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.