Israel’s intelligence agencies have assembled a comprehensive assessment of who truly controls Iran, senior security officials say. Evidently, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains hidden at an undisclosed location, known only to a select few, due to fears he could be targeted by Israel.

Though seriously wounded, his mental faculties are intact, and he receives regular updates.

The killing of his father, Ali Khamenei, the previous supreme leader, occurred on Feb. 28, the first day of the current war, along with the deaths of other senior regime figures. This event led to a profound transformation in Iran’s power structure.

Iran issues written statements in the name of Mojtaba, without images or recordings.

Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israel may soon target Mojtaba. On April 23, after a security briefing, Katz said, “We await a U.S. green light to eliminate the Khamenei dynasty and its successors.”

Now, after two months of war against the United States and Israel, Iran is no longer governed by a single leader wielding undisputed authority. This marks a break from the political tradition that has prevailed since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, a shift that could lead Tehran to adopt more hardline positions as it weighs the possibility of reaching an agreement with Washington.

Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic, the political system revolved around the figure of the supreme leader, who held ultimate authority over all major decisions.

That reality has now fundamentally changed. Iran has entered a phase in which the center of power has shifted to the Supreme National Security Council, where commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hold dominant influence, in a system increasingly characterized by the absence of a clear, decisive authority.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader, remains at the top of the system. He was elevated by the Assembly of Experts, largely under pressure from IRGC commanders, led by Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi. Senior security officials say he owes his appointment to the Revolutionary Guards and has effectively become a “rubber stamp,” providing legitimacy for their decisions.

His responsibilities involve approving, not formulating, military decisions.

Real power lies with a hardline group operating through the Supreme National Security Council and the IRGC, which now shapes Iran’s military and political direction.

This shift in power centers has slowed and complicated Iran’s decision-making process. Leadership is fragmented, and responses to U.S.-Iran negotiations can take days.

IRGC Commander Vahidi plays a central role in strategic decision-making, including ceasefire arrangements and negotiations. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is sidelined, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acts mainly as a limited envoy.

Israeli intelligence assesses Iran is shifting from a religious-theocratic model to rule by the security establishment, led by the IRGC, possibly meaning a harsher foreign policy and tighter domestic control.

A senior official said, “At this rate, Iran could become like North Korea.”

Despite U.S. and Israeli pressure, Iran’s regime shows no signs of collapse.

Instead, an internal consensus has formed: avoid full-scale war, keep leverage—especially the Strait of Hormuz—and seek to exit the crisis stronger.

In conclusion, Iran’s political system is marked by a shift; while formal authority rests with the supreme leader, real power now resides with the security establishment. The IRGC is not just an executive arm but the central force directing the country, with control concentrated among the military-security elite.

Originally published by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. Yoni Ben Menachem, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center.