By Nir Boms and Shayan Arya
President Trump announcement withdrawing the US from the JCPOA – the Iran nuclear deal – was anticipated but, nevertheless, no less dramatic. While it was expected that the president will fulfill its own campaign promise, the announcement, coming days after Israeli P.M Netanyahu reveled more about the Iranian nuclear intention and on the background of a growing Israeli – Iranian military clashes in Syria, could not come at a worse time for the leadership of the Islamist regime.
Iran has never been weaker, facing enormous challenges in parallel fronts. Its economy is on the verge of collapse; ;political infighting paralyses the Islamic Regime’s ability to confront the challenges it faces; and increasing unemployment gives rise to continuing discontent and unrest. While the last wave of protests was again curtailed, its echoes still vibrates in the Iranian streets: “why is it that we fight in distant lands while the home front is burning?”, “Where is the promise of the revolution?” and also, “we miss you Phalevi”, the last Sha of Iran and the arch nemesis of its Mullas.
Most economists agree that Iran’s economy cannot sustain itself. Steve H. Hanke, a professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University believes that “ Iran’s economy is in a death spiral”. And he is not alone. The Iranian people and the rapidly shrinking Iran’s private sector follow suit.
Muhammad Nasiri and Amir Vhadat of AP reported on “Busy shopping malls …now largely stand empty as people save their money.” It continues that “Iranians increasingly talk among themselves of trying to leave the country for a better life abroad.” Following President Trump’s announcement the Iranian rial fell to a record low, breaking through the 50,000-to-the-dollar and marking a loss of a quarter of its value in the past six months.
Meanwhile, pressure on Iran in Syria is increasing making its involvement in that country even more costly at a time when Iran can least afford it. Iran had already spent billions of dollars on the Syria campaign and estimates on Iran’s annual military expenditure in Syria vary from US$6 billion a year to US$15 billion. Just an hour after President Trump’s decision, Israeli missiles targeted depots and rocket launchers belonging to Iran in kisweh. It was not the first time Israel, allegedly directly targeted Iranian bases in Syria. Last month in April, Israeli missiles hit an important Iranian munition site in Syria killing 16.
The involvement in Syria was never popular in Iran although at the beginning, it was more or less tolerated. However, as the economy trembled, the inflation mounted and standards of living experienced a free fall, people became increasingly angry resenting the fact that foreign wars are fought at their expense.
This became apparent during the riots that engulfed Iran and spread to more than 100 cities, at the end of 2017. One of the most prevailing slogans besides the call for the restoration of Monarchy was against Iran’s involvement in Syria.
There is no question that the Islamic regime in Iran has to fight multiple battles at the same time. As history is the judge, no regime can survive let alone win fighting simultaneous multi dimensional internal, external, political and economic wars.
When British foreign Minister, Mr. Boris Johnson was asked whether the seek overthrow the government in Iran he said that he does “ not believe that regime change in Tehran is the objective that we should be seeking,” John Bolton, US National Security Advisor, on his part followed suit saying that : ” (regime change) is not the policy of the administration. The policy of the administration is to make sure that Iran never gets close to deliverable nuclear weapons.”
However, policy choices aside, what matters to the Iranian people is that the Islamic Regime in Teheran is incapable of tackling the mounting problems facing Iran and unable to improve the standard of Iranian people’s living.
The end of JCPOA will further accelerate this dynamic. This may not be the end but it might be the beginning of the end of the Islamic regime. The free world will be well advised to listen to the Iranian people and pay attention to emerging alternatives rather than waste time on keeping unattainable status quo.
Dr. Nir Boms is a co-founder of CyberDissidensts.org and a research fellow at the Dayan center for Middle East Studies. Shayan Arya is an Iran expert and Human Rights activist and a member of the Constitutionalist Party of Iran (Liberal Democrat).