MBS, for the first time publicly,  expressed optimism about a normalization between Riyadh and Jerusalem.

 “Every day we get closer,” he said in an interview with Fox News. He denied that US-brokered talks with Israel had been suspended.

According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed his country’s leading nuclear and security specialists to work with U.S. negotiators to find a compromise that lets Saudi Arabia enrich uranium in the framework of a deal that includes normalization with Israel.

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen told Israel’s Army Radio that the details of a normalization agreement could be finalized as early as the beginning of next year.

 

Since several weeks, every day brings new reports on a potential three-way deal between the Unites States, Saudi Arabia that will include a Saudi-Israeli normalization, which would constitute a major turning point in the Middle East.  

On Wednesday, on the sidelines of the annual United Nations General Assembly, U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the issue.  “Mr. President, we can forge a historic peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia. And I think such a peace would go a long way first to advance the end of the Arab-Israeli conflict, achieve reconciliation between the Islamic world and the Jewish state, and advance a genuine peace between Israel and the Palestinians,” Netanyahu said.

Biden said, “If you and I, 10 years ago, were talking about normalization with Saudi Arabia, I think we’d look at each other like, ‘Who’s been drinking what?’”

Netanyahu responded: “Good Irish whiskey.”

It is no hazard that almost on the same day, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, also known as MBS, for the first time publicly  expressed optimism about such a normalization between Riyadh and Jerusalem.

“Every day we get closer,” he said in an interview with Fox News. He denied that US-brokered talks with Israel had been suspended.

Addressing the significance of the Palestinian issue in the context of normalization with Israel, MBS said: “For us, the Palestinian issue is very important. We need to solve that part.”

“We got to see where we go. We hope that will reach a place, that it will ease the life of the Palestinians, get Israel as a player in the Middle East,” he added, speaking in English.

The Biden administration has been actively pursuing a diplomatic breakthrough between Saudi Arabia and Israel, akin to the Abraham Accords – a series of normalization agreements brokered by the then Trump administration in 2020 between Israel and four Arab states: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrein, Morocco and Sudan.

In exchange for any agreement, Saudi Arabia has reiterated its demand for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and other concessions from Israel for the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia is seeking increased security commitments from the US as well as U.S. assistance in developing its civilian nuclear program.

MBS warned that if Iran gets a nuclear program, Saudi Arabia will pursue a similar course of action. ‘’If Iran gets a nuclear weapon, we have to get one,” he told Fox News. He says Saudi Arabia is “concerned” when any country acquires a nuclear weapon. However, he suggests that no one would use a nuclear weapon because this would mean starting a “war with the rest of the world.”A report

Another sign that a normalization deal is in the offingh was given in a  report in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal. According to the report, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed his country’s leading nuclear and security specialists to work with U.S. negotiators to find a compromise that lets Saudi Arabia enrich uranium.

Israeli officials are “quietly working” with the White House to develop a “U.S.-run, uranium-enrichment operation” in Saudi Arabia for a civilian nuclear program, a key condition of the kingdom for accepting a normalization agreement with Israel, officials from both countries told the Wall Street Journal.

Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank that opposes the proposal, told the newspaper that Israeli support for it represents “a radical policy shift for a country that has opposed nuclear proliferation in the Middle East since inception.”

U.S. President Joe Biden has not yet signed off on the idea of permitting uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia, officials told the Wall Street Journal. The U.S. is worried that the Saudis may go to China instead. China National Nuclear Corp., a state-owned company, has bid to build a nuclear plant in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, near the border with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

“Saudi officials acknowledged that exploring the issue with China was a way of goading the Biden administration to compromise on its nonproliferation requirements,” the Wall Street Journal reported in August.

Israel and the U.S. appear ready to accept the risks of a nuclear Saudi Arabia in return for normalization.

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid on Thursday warned against allowing Riyadh to enrich uranium as part of a peace accord.

“A normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia is a welcome thing. But not at the cost of allowing the Saudis to develop nuclear weapons. Not at the cost of a nuclear arms race throughout the Middle East,” the Yesh Atid Party chairman said in a statement.

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen told Galei Tsahal, Israel’s Army Radio, that the details of a normalization agreement could be finalized as early as the beginning of next year.

“The gaps can be bridged. It will take time, but progress is being made,” the top diplomat told Army Radio.

“I think there is a likelihood that in the first quarter of 2024, in four to five months, we could be at a point where the details are finalized,” said Cohen.

“There are many details for this kind of agreement, and Israel’s security takes precedence over everything. We want peace, but also security,” he said.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the possible Saudi-Israeli normalization on ABC’s “Good Morning America.” “When it comes to possible normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, this would be a transformative event,” he said. “We’ve had decades of turmoil, decades of conflict in the Middle East. To bring these two countries together in particular would have a powerful effect in stabilizing the region, in integrating the region, in bringing people together, not having them at each other’s throats.”

That won’t be easy. There are things that Saudis are looking for, things the Israelis are looking for, things we’d be looking for that make getting to ‘yes’ a challenge,” Blinken said. “But we see the reward, if we can get there, as well being worth the effort.”

Asked by the journalist if he believes Netanyahu is willing to do what it takes to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, Blinken said his sense is that all parties involved realize the benefits and “transformative nature of what this would be.”

“But the devil is always in the details, and making sure that in terms of what the Saudis are looking for, the Israelis are looking for, what—as I said, what we’d be looking for—can we line all that up? Can we make it work? That remains to be seen,” he said.

The Saudis are also seeking significant concessions from Israel regarding the Palestinian issue. In 2020 when the Abraham Accords were signed, the Palestinians rejected them. Today, they cannot boycott a Saudi deal because this would risk alienating both the U.S. and the Saudis. In 2020, the United Arab Emirates secured a symbolic gesture from Israel: the temporary postponement of plans to annex part of the West Bank for security reasons. ‘’Analysts think the Saudis, mindful of their powerful role in the Middle East and in the Islamic world,  want to win something more significant for the Palestinians,’’ wrote the New York Times in Jerusalem.

Does Europe finally understands the importance of a Saudi-Israeli normalization for its own security in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine and Iran’s growing ties with Russia?

The European Union should not stay on the sidelines of the process of normalization which leads to Israel’s full integration in the region and will change Israel’s relationship with the rest of the Arab world.. But the EU appear to be only looking at the Israeli-Palestinian side of the issue, not the other challenges. ”If we really want a two-state solution, everybody has to support it in practical terms. For us, Europeans, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is very important. It is in our neighbourhood. And we see how it is deteriorating every day. We are very much concerned for the fate of the Palestinian people and for the effect that this conflict has also on the security of Israel,” said EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell at the United Nations in New York where over 40 countries and delegations joined a high-level meeting aimed at injecting new life into moribund Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.

While Borrell welcomed the agreements between the Arab countries and Israel, he added:” But we have to work for the peace between Israel and Palestine, and on that everyone has to make a contribution – the Arabs, the Europeans, the United States, all around the world.”