In an interview with European Jewish Press (EJP) in London, Prof. Uzi Rabi, Director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies and a senior researcher at the Center for Iranian Studies, both at Tel Aviv University, commented on the latest development regarding Iran being close to developing the nuclear bomb and prospects for toppling the Ayatollahs regime.
Observers in Israel are closely watching developments regarding Iran’s nuclear program following Sunday’s report that inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) discovered uranium enriched to just below weapons grade.
According to a Bloomberg report, the IAEA is seeking to determine how Iran obtained uranium enriched to 84% purity—the highest level discovered by inspectors in the country to date. The concentration is only 6 percentage points below military-grade uranium, a prerequisite for building nuclear bombs.
Responding to the Bloomberg report, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday that he is in close contact with the IAEA and European governments over the development, adding that he’d say more on the matter after receiving further information.
On Jan. 26, a historic five-day joint Israeli-American military exercise called Juniper Oak came to an end. The exercise saw unprecedented levels of cooperation between the U.S. military’s Central Command (CENTCOM), which is responsible for the Middle East, and the IDF.
In a series of secret meetings, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the heads of Israel’s security forces to significantly ramp up preparations for a strike on Iran’s nuclear installations, Israeli media reported on Tuesday.
The meetings, five in number, were attended by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, Mossad head David Barnea and other top officials, according to Channel 12.
“The longer you wait, the harder that becomes. We’ve waited very long,” Netanyahu said earlier this week in an interview.
History has shown that in the absence of a credible military threat or actual military action, Iran will become a nuclear power, he said.
In an interview with European Jewish Press (EJP) in London, Prof. Uzi Rabi, Director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies and a senior researcher at the Center for Iranian Studies, both at Tel Aviv University, commented on the latest development regarding Iran being close to developing the nuclear bomb and prospects for toppling the Ayatollahs regime.
‘’They don’t have the missiles on which to put the material but basically they have the knowledge, the technique, the scientists and when it comes to enriching uranium that amount of purity it seems that they are close theoretically speaking. Now comes the main question: are they going to speed it up ? One would say that Iran is trying to enjoy both sides of the spectrum by being on the threshold: not crossing the threshold of becoming a nuclear state because this is a different game. This is also something that the Ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guards are really debating. But I agree: it is closer than ever before to have the bomb and the closer it is the more urgent it becomes for the world to decide what should be the endgame,’’ he said.
Prof. Rabi was in the British capital for a series of briefings organized by Europe Israel Press Association (EIPA).
An attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities ?
‘’Israel said time and again that it won’t allow a nuclear Iran. Now for Israel it is much better actually to have such thing being done together with the United States at least, not to mention others. But the U.S. first. This is a very complicated operation since Iran is so huge in terms of territory and since the nuclear industry has facilities all over the country. I thinkl that both on the operative level and the legitimacy Israel should be very careful and wise as to listen to both Europe and the United States. An attack should be done with the consent of Western Europe and the United States.’’
The Iranian regime might be toppled following the ongoing protests in the country and the fact that it becomes a pariah state because of their involvement in the war in Ukraine with the Russians?
‘’The protest by itself cannot get to the extent of toppling the regime but there are new developments that can create that kind of a scenario, a combination of factors, the fact that it is siding with Russia, providing Russia with drones, becoming public enemy number one when it comes to Western Europe and the United States. There are minorities in Iran who are willing to collaborate with outside forces because they are fed up with the regime. There could be a kind of situation where a combination of these factors could culminate in the toppling of the regime. I don’t know if America is ready or willing to do that but I am pretty sure that 2023 will be a critical year during which we are going to see new developments regarding the struggle against nuclear Iran.’’
Who to replace the ayatollahs ? The son of the former Shah ? Or others ?
‘’I don’t think that there would be a restoration of the monarchy, the son of the Shah or other, but there is a very diversified opposition when it comes to people of the universities, educated upper-middle class. We have many other organs of the Iranian society. It might be somebody from the army or from the Revolutionary Guards that would actually replace the Ayatollahs. Then it wouldn’t be an Islamic Republic because it is going to be something else…We will have to wait and see but until then we might see the combination of so many sectors in Iran uniting in the notion of toppling the regime and being aided by outside forces. When that happens Iran is good to create a kind of an alternative. This is not the first revolution to take place in Iran. It happened many times in the modern history of the country. We still have to wait and see how the games are played out because it would herald the end of Ayatollahs and of the Islamic Republic. It could be a kind of military autocracy or a kind of a different regime but the most important thing for the Iranians and for everybody is to let this Ayatollahs regime go and create something else because this is a state with a rich history. Don’t forget that before the Islamic Revolution, Israel and Iran were in friendly relations, there was a huge cooperation in so many fields. This is because Iran was looking at the world differently. I hope that the alternative will look the world in a different way than the ayatollahs.”
What would mean a new Iran for the Middle East ?
‘’I hope that this will herald the change because the Arab anxiety or fear of Islamic Iran will be reduced as Iran’s support of terrorism all over the places would be reduced. This would bring an amount of stability to the Middle East. This is the hope of so many in and out of Iran. i would not rule the possibility that in the long, medium or even short run something will happen that would change realities in Iran.’’